2012年1月16日 星期一

NPD Solarbuzz expects PV equipment suppliers’ 2012 revenues

A broad range of PV equipment suppliers are expected to have reported record revenues for 2011, after a year of continued capacity expansions. However, this situation will be contrasted by significant cut-back in capital expenditure in 2012 as the PV industry struggles with overcapacity and falling prices, according to the latest NPD Solarbuzz PV Equipment Quarterly report.

With a significant focus on capacity expansions in China and Taiwan, NPD Solarbuzz noted that Asia-based equipment suppliers benefited greatly, often at the expense of Western-based firms with a long-standing history within the industry.

“The euphoria of announcing record revenues for 2011 is countered by the realization that much of the tooling shipped last year was stimulated by highly ambitious capacity expansion plans that were not underpinned by market demand,” noted Finlay Colville, senior analyst at NPD Solarbuzz. “Over-capacity reached chronic proportions across the c-Si value-chain during 2011 and only stronger than anticipated end-market demand in 2012 will mitigate a painful and severe equipment spending downturn.”

The market research firm highlights Japan-based wire-saw producer, Komatsu-NTC and an emerging group of Chinese tool suppliers that included (Fujian) Apollo, 48th Research Institute , Jinggong and Jingyuntong (JYT), which saw revenue grow significantly in 2011.

Collectively, the four Chinese companies noted by NPD Solarbuzz, posted a CAGR metric in excess of 200% for PV-specific equipment revenues covering the period from 2008 to 2011.

Many European equipment suppliers with a strong track record within the PV industry were also forecast to post record PV tool revenues for 2011, while Applied Materials was expected to retain the top spot.I have just spent two weeks shopping for tile and have discovered China Porcelain tile. Others,A mold or molds is a hollowed-out block that is filled with a liquid like plastic, such as Centrotherm, are also forecast to post record PV tool revenues for 2011.

However, NPD Solarbuzz noted that other European suppliers didn’t benefit from the capital spending as much as others. Notably,VulcanMold is a Injection mold and injection molding manufacturer in china. the market research firm said that market share eroded around 50% for the likes of Roth & Rau,Daneplast Limited UK are plastic injection mould & toolmaking specialists. Manz, ALD-Vacuum and PVA-TePla for 2011, when compared to this grouping’s PV share back in 2008.

NPD Solarbuzz said that China in particular continued to invest in turn-key a-Si lines, which supported revenue streams for Oerlikon and Apollo during the year.Distributes and manufactures RUBBER SHEET, The market research firm expected this segment to continue to take bookings, though in lumpy levels.

According to Colville, the PV equipment that was shipped during 2011 is now contributing to a misleading (nameplate) capacity figure, which he believes is at the 50GW level. However, the reaction to overcapacity and falling prices meant that many production lines were shuttered completely or idled as industry average utilization rates are currently below 50%. Some of the equipment shipped last year still awaits tool installation after a market recovery. The result is that annualized, effective , ramped capacity is actually closer to 30GW, according to the analyst.

Colville believes that the next round of capital spending, driven by tier 1 and some selected tier 2 players would not begin until sufficient confidence that end-market demand would exceed the 30GW mark.

Currently, Colville sees little for equipment suppliers to be optimistic about regarding 2012 business opportunities, though he noted that changes in the c-Si equipment road map point firmly to an increase in high-efficiency cell variants, with over 75% of capacity added during 2012, capable of producing panels with efficiency gains of 0.5% or more, compared to industry averages through 2011.

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